The GÆIA Partnership

Greenpeace International and the European Renewable Energy Council have recently published a set of detailed proposals to dramatically reduce CO2 emissions in Europe. It is a  long, detailed document that many people will not read, although I urge you to try - there are many simple to appreciate graphs and other graphics. The report is, however, a very important analysis, review and set of strategic and tactical proposals to both reduce CO2 emissions and wean us off fossil fuels.

The plan covers from 2010 through to 2050 when 92% of energy will be renewable and CO2 emissions will be reduced by 95%. They claim the total cost is €2000 billion but the saving will be €2650 billion (mostly because of the accelerating rise in the price of increasingly rare fossil fuels).

The aims are:

• Reduce CO2 emissions
• Make energy supply more secure
• Reduce dependence on unsustainable energy source
• Reduce the cost of energy

There are two scenarios presented as well as a reference scenario - business as usual.

• Basic  - reduces CO2 by 75%
• Advanced - reduces CO2 by 95%

The plan presents a review of all current sustainable and unsustainable energy sources, comparing their cost, maintenance cost, CO2 emission and other qualities and so is a very useful source of information as well as a detailed plan for the future including changed business models.

Vision for the advanced scenario

1. Reduce primary energy demand by over a third from the 2007 level of 73,880 PJ/a to 46,030 PJ/a in 2050. The reference scenario would see demand of 75,920 PJ/a.
2. Electric vehicles and hydrogen produced from electrolysis. The share of electric vehicles would be 14.6% by 2030 and 62% in 2050. There would also be more public transport.
3. Increased use of CHP. CHP would be increasingly based on biomass and natural gas.
4. By 2050, 97% of the EU’s electricity would come from renewable energy. Renewable energy capacity of 1520 GW will produce 4110 TWh of renewable electricity per year from 2050. “A significant share of the fluctuating power generation from wind and solar photovoltaics will be used to supply electricity for vehicle batteries and produce hydrogen as a secondary fuel in transport and industry,” the study says.
5. Renewable sources will account for 92% of heat supply by 2050 with a particular focus on biomass and geothermal.
6. Finally, 92% of final energy demand will be covered by renewable energy by 2050.

“To achieve an economically attractive growth of these resources, a balanced and timely mobilisation of all technologies is of great importance. Such mobilisation depends on technical potentials, actual costs, cost reduction potentials and technical maturity,” EREC and Greenpeace say.

 Some details

For the advanced model here are the relative global usage figures between 2010 and 2050 for fossil fuels.

Source         2010      2050
Oil              155,920   51,770
Gas            104,845   34,285
Coal           135,890     7,501
[figures in PetaJoules to make comparisons simpler]

Also for the advanced model here are the planned European sustainable sources of electricity between 2010 and 2050 in GigaWatts.

Source             2010      2050
Hydro                 140          163
Biomass                20         100
Wind                      57        497
Geothermal           1           96
Solar elec               5        498
Solar heat              0           99
Ocean                      0           66
Total                   223     1,518

Part of the plan which may be contentious is that the plan involved around a 36% reduction in energy consumption across Europe from 73,880PJ/a to 46,030PJ/a. This reduction is critical if fossil and nuclear are to be phased out and would be made up of efficiency savings but would might include some level of energy use regulation.

The full report (4MB), in PDF, can be downloaded here.